4/27/25 - LAFC 2 -2 STL
Should've Been 3, Should've Been 0, Was 1
A chaotic game and a chaotic schedule mean we get this #MLSMondays on a Wednesday this week, surely a record.
STL put up a respectable 1.41 xG on the night, scoring 2 goals (the OG doesn’t count toward xG), but the talking point for me is that STL conceded 2 goals on 3.82 xG, including a penalty.
So, let’s talk about it.
Team Selection:
A different look this weekend, as Olof opted to bolster the midfield with the inclusion of Ostrák. On paper, it made a lot of sense as it provided Yaro and Hiebert on the right with an easier option to progress the ball and, in turn, could allow Ostrák to run through the midfield.
Did it work? Absolutely not, but also, yes? At halftime, it was 0-0. The xG, however? 1.85 to 0.03. CITY could do absolutely nothing, and that’s a hard blame on the players.
The center-backs could not progress the ball. Baumgartl, Yaro, Hiebert, and Horn combined for two progressive passes. CITY had nine total touches in the attacking penalty area. They went eight for 25 in dribbles. But it’s not just that; they stunk the place out with the simple things. CITY averages 12 miscontrols per game, which is calculated whenever a player fails to gain control of the ball. Against LAFC, they had 19. That’s not having a pass intercepted, a shot blocked, or a dribble tackled, but simply losing the ball when receiving it, and doing so 58% more than normal. Cheaply giving the ball away and losing possession for no reason is a great way to drop points (foreshadowing).
So, in the second half, Olof changed (again), and it looked something like this.
For what it’s worth, there’s a lot of fair criticism about our manager, but his willingness to try different formations/schemes is NOT something you see often.
Did this work? Well, CITY put up 1.55 xG in the second half compared to 0.03 in the first, and scored 2 (1+OG). On the other side, CITY conceded 2.18 xG in the second half, which would be the worst defensive performance of the entire season, including conceding the first penalty, and did so in just one half.
In switching back to a variation of the 4-2-3-1 CITY fans saw for the better part of 2 years, CITY fans likely understood the rationale behind Lutz & Co starting to bring in players and later a manager who don’t fit that 4-2-3-1 ethos. The defense? It stinks, stank, stunk. In 2023, an xGD of -7.5. In 2024, an xGD of -10.5. Going into this game? An xGD of +0.1.
On paper, on TV, or in the stands, it may not seem *that* different, but especially for the CBs, the switch from 2 to 3 is night and day. For one, there’s a lot more space without that third body. It also means that there isn’t a numerical superiority often, so instead of having a help defender like the CCB, each defender, to use a basketball or football term, is in man-to-man defense; therefore, helping means another opponent becomes open. It’s not as simple as this, but essentially, CBs in a back four have to be better than CBs in a back five.
Yaro exhibits good straight-line speed and is a decent carrier of the ball down the right, but he is not laterally quick and gets turned too easily. Hiebert is defensively sound in the penalty area but struggles to defend against attackers with space, and he is not a progressive player in possession. Baumgartl is a big-bodied player who enjoys attempting line-splitting passes, but he lacks quickness, and those passes can be wayward. Nilsson, very similar in profile to Baumgartl.
Horn and Kessler, excellent defenders in space, but Horn has aerial struggles and passing limitations that aren’t great in a back four, whereas Kessler is just really damn good.
So, I’ll leave it up to you to decide whether you prefer the switch.
Individual
I’m only talking about one player here, Benjamin Lundt.
He’s replacing the best goalkeeper in the league, 100% g+ in 2023, 95% in 2024.
Has he been great? No. But he was great on Sunday. +1.2 PSxG, including a penalty saved, is a career performance for Big Ben. CITY has had to change how they play out from the back with Lundt, because as you see, he’s just not anywhere near the passer that Roman is, and I think that’s had a much larger impact than we’ve acknowledged early this season. But, as a backup goalkeeper in MLS, he’s putting up a 61st percentile g+? Better than over half the league? Sign me up.
This might be the last week we get to talk about Ben outside of the Open Cup, and I don’t want his efforts to go unnoticed.
St. Louis is second in MLS in PSxG, at +4.0. On a per 90 basis, Ben is 5th in MLS at +0.30.
He’s not the heir to Roman’s throne, and he’s out of contract at the end of 2025, so it remains to be seen if CITY will have an entirely different goalkeeping unit in 2026, but Ben has done more than expected, especially from me, and I’ll be the first to hold my hand up and say that he’s been much better than I thought he would be (even though he really can’t kick the ball to his left).
Those Goals & Final Thoughts
That first goal is poor. Too many players are standing off, allowing time for a pass to come from the most dangerous location on the pitch to one of the best players MLS has seen. Horn, Teuchert, and others are all flat-footed, not applying any pressure. Morales sinks too deep. Hiebert loses track of the one player on the pitch you can’t lose track of. It’s a goal almost purely conceded due to mental errors, and as an unbelievably accomplished CB, Olof should be pulling his beautiful hair out.
The second goal is inexcusable. I made the joke after the game that for all the hate and vitriol this fanbase directs at Olof’s defensive preference, if CITY had decided to be defensive, they would’ve left with an undeserved victory. Why is Hiebert pushing that high when CITY is playing in a back four in stoppage time? Why is Yaro not fouling the most dangerous man on the pitch anywhere before he gets near the box? And for me, most importantly, why is Pompeu playing a nonchalant pass like that when CITY just needs to retain the ball for a couple of minutes and win? He hits that pass at 33 seconds. Seven seconds later, Bouanga has taken his second touch and is in the penalty area, 3v3.
For a team that has built a reputation on compact defending, which has just potentially robbed LAFC of points on the road, this level of foolishness, of naiveté, is unacceptable.
Based on those 90 minutes, CITY should not have left with a point, but at the same time, there’s no reason why they should have left with anything other than 3 points.
I’ll leave you with a quote from the book Net Gains, which I’ve been spreading around the interwebs last week, that feels applicable today.
"Due to its low-scoring nature, a sound process is less likely to be rewarded in soccer than it is in any other sport."
LAFC had the sound process, but the only reason they were rewarded is because of St. Louis CITY. And that’s a sentence we’ve uttered too much in our existence.
Thanks for reading! Hopefully, we'll discuss STL’s win in Seattle next week, and Round 2 of the 11v11 tournament will get underway!
#AllForCITY, forever and always.