5/10/25 - STL 1 - 2 SD
Perspective.
In this #MLSMondays, we attempt to honor the legacy of the great Anton Ego.
Know what I’m craving? A little perspective. That’s it. I’d like some fresh, clear, well-seasoned perspective…You provide the food, I’ll provide the perspective.
CITY provided us with food for thought, I’ll attempt to provide some perspective.
Let’s talk about it. #STLvSD
Before we get into the specifics of the night, let’s have a conversation.
A conversation I had with my father as we walked out of Energizer Park, after losing, again. He said, “I keep hoping that this is going to be the game that changes. That is what turns the team around.”
My response. “Why?”
Is this team healthier than the one that was blown out by Seattle? No. Is this team healthier than the team that drew in LA? No. We could keep going back week after week, but rather, let me show you.
Since March 22nd, CITY has played every. single. game. with, AT MOST, half (6/11) of their preferred starting lineup.
They have played three (3) games, out of 12, with 75% (8/11) of the preferred starting lineup. Those 3 games? 7 points. The other 9 games? 3 points.
But let’s look at it another way. How does this team perform when 8+ starters are in the lineup versus less than 8. 8/11 is, imperfectly, 75% of your starting lineup.
When CITY has less than 75% of the starters, they lose by a goal a game (-1), and lose the xG battle by half a goal a game (-0.43).
When CITY has 8+ starters, CITY averages winning by more than a goal a game, and plays almost even xG soccer (-0.07).
I want to reiterate my concluding thought on Saturday night,
The damning part of all of this is that, highlighted throughout this unavailability crisis, #AllForCITY are forced to play players that should’ve been upgraded upon a long time ago, and it’s rearing its ugly head week after week.
It’s not good enough.
So let me ask you the same question I asked my father. Why do you think/hope CITY will just “get better”?
Numerically, this is the same team that has earned 2 points in the last 2 months. The players on whom this team currently relies are not players intended to be relied upon, and it shows. This situation is both a result of MLS roster rules and a failure by the organization to move or improve players who have not demonstrated the requisite fitness or ability to warrant a roster spot. There is no flexibility in roster construction. If you swing and miss, or are hampered by unavailability, there is insufficient quality depth to save you. Just ask the Galaxy.
Talking about depth is a great way to discuss Saturday night…
Team Selection:
The front three picks itself (for now), because there are more pressing issues, and a defensive unit that would not look out of place in MLS Next Pro.
A midfield pairing that no one in their right mind would have predicted seeing in 2025, and a midfield pairing purely out of necessity.
Did it work? Well, half of it did.
I think Tomáš Ostrák had his best ever performance for CITY on Saturday, in a moment when they needed him most. CITY were the better team for almost the entirety of the evening, and the collapse occurred shortly after 7’s substitution.
Ostrák was second on the team in progressive passes. He led the team in passing distance; he went 43/45 in attempts, with 33 of those being medium/long passing attempts. He finished third in touches and played 20 minutes less than his peers.
The only reason CITY could progress the ball centrally whatsoever was because of Ostrák. His partner? Invisible.
Wallem ranked 9th among starters in progressive passing distance, completing only 1 progressive pass in 90 minutes. But passing wasn’t the only area where he fell short. Ostrák received more passes, had more carries, covered more distance, achieved greater progressive distance, attempted more dribbles, and had more touches in our penalty area, defensive third, and midfield third.
Perhaps Wallem was assigned to be the 6 to Ostrák’s 8, allowing Ostrák to handle the ball while Conrad focused on defense. However, the stats don’t support that. There was an equal number of tackles and interceptions, and an equal number of challenged dribbles. Ostrák recorded blocks and led the team in interrupting g+.
In summary, Ostrák did everything he could to get on the ball and help the team advance toward SD’s goal. It was a Löwen-esque performance, acting as the heartbeat of the team. Like Löwen in the previous two years, he accomplished this largely on his own.
I don’t watch press conferences, nor do I give much weight to the words that are spoken. However, I will make an exception in this case. Olof mentioned that Wallem in midfield is where his best production will come from.
He’s absolutely, positively, unequivocally wrong.
Wallem is one of the Best XI, but it’s not as a central midfielder.
The Replacements
Let’s start with a caveat: it is NOT a player’s fault that he is not good enough. You don’t become a professional athlete through a lack of skill, ambition, and work ethic.
It is not their fault they are fit and selected to play while others are unavailable. The best ability? Availability.
However, it is the job of a sports organization to evaluate its personnel and determine whether they are *good enough* to play here. Every player has a home, especially in this sport, where each team can play in numerous ways.
In St. Louis, under Olof, you can be sure that defenders will post good defensive metrics, if nothing else.
Here’s how the three centerbacks on Saturday night compare to their peers around the league.
Is that good enough?
Good defensive metrics, as we mentioned, but when considering these, I return to the original discussion point.
What’s the expectation?
Are CITY, Olof, and the players really expected to win when Yaro is currently rated as the fifth worst CB among all MLS qualifiers? Or Hiebert, who, based on his fantastic start to the 2025 season, is regressing quickly. (For context, Hiebert’s Net g+ has been consistently decreasing week over week for over a month.) Or Baumgartl, who has barely played in the past two years and has not been impressive during that time.
People will undoubtedly ask, "Well, why play all three of them then? Why not adjust the formation and only play two?” Simply put, these players are not capable enough to function in a two. Refer to the defensive disasters of previous seasons. Anytime you reduce the number of players in a position or area, it becomes more challenging for the remaining players.
It’s already problematic in a three, but it would be even worse in a two.
Perspective
So what do we expect on Wednesday? Bürki's return means an uptick in the Best XI numbers. We have evidence suggesting that this team wins games and outscores its opponents when they have a healthy, strong XI, and we know this team performs poorly when the XI is weak.
CITY were the better team for 70 minutes on Saturday. Then, the subs were subbed, leaving us with subs of subs, and it absolutely imploded.
A shameless plug: an hour before kickoff, when I release my XI formation graphic, take a peek. Do you see 8+ of the Best XI? If so, get excited. If not, well, you know what to do.
Thanks for reading. See you at Energizer Park on Wednesday. #AllForCITY, forever and always.