Belt-to-Ass. San Jose Earthquakes.
That might actually undersell what Yoann Damet’s (yay) side did to Bruce Arena’s (nay) side.
3 goals on 3.11 xG
1 goal conceded on 0.22 xG
2.83 expected points.
We talked ad nauseam when things weren’t going great, that when CITY underperformed the ##’s, points were dropped. In this one, CITY managed to underperform both and wiped the floor with San Jose.
2.83 expected points is a lot. The great folks over at ASA have a slightly different model than my own, and they calculated the xPts at 2.91. 2.91 xPts is currently the second-highest expected points by an away team in MLS this year (2.92 is the highest, an away team at Furniture Mart Park FC).
But back to 2.83, Saturday night was MLS game number 122 for the Boys in Pink Who Only Wear Gold, and 2.83 is also CITY’s second-highest tally, behind that still totally awful Dallas performance at the end of last season.
So what worked?
Everything
Goals from the 9
Simon Becher's scoring proves helpful. He scored twice, on 1.81 xG, and largely did absolutely nothing different to what he’s been doing all season - playing defense, holding up play, laying off passes to teammates, and receiving balls in dangerous areas. The difference? He scored.
Last season, he was the worst finisher in the league. This season, he is the worst finisher in the league. These two seasons rank fourth and fifth worst, individually, since tracking began in 2013, and among the top 30 worst-finishing seasons ever, only one other player appears twice: Christian Benteke, who scored 23 goals on 32.65 xG in 2023 and 2025.
As Welch alluded to, xG creation has not been a problem for CITY and Becher. Hartel was sixth in MLS in chances created, just shy of 3 per 90, and CITY sits ninth in the xG table. Now, that chance creation may be more questionable moving forward in the AH (After Hartel) era, but, needless to say, the offense generates enough to score most of the time. It’s the scoring part that proves difficult.
His hold-up play has improved dramatically in 2026, to the point where it could be considered a strength. He has largely cut out one of the worst parts of his game—the willingness and eagerness to dribble through defenders without succeeding—and replaced it with one-touch passes to more advantageous teammates.
So when Simon Becher scores, you’d expect good things to happen. CITY has managed to go on this run and sit sixth in the West without the CF scoring. Of the 18 teams currently in playoff positions, only one team, Minnesota, has scored fewer goals (21) than CITY (27). Going into Saturday night’s game, CITY’s AH leading goal scorers were all tied at two. Simon doubled his tally to four.
Duel of the Eights
Yoann Damet does not care what I, Michael/CCT, think about how a midfield should look and operate—a philosophical difference. I’m more of a brushstroke on canvas — sweeping lines, beautiful, intricate. Bob Ross.
Yoann Damet is hellfire and brimstone. Dante Alighieri.
Oh, this pain isn’t enough for you? How about a different circle of hell?
Your name’s Sisyphus? Nice to meet you; we are the boulder.
Thanks to the Turkey for this wonderful illustration of Damet’s midfield, as Matthew Doyle described them:
When it goes right, it can be literal hell to play against. Ninety minutes of pain, because Chris Durkin doesn’t have any regard for your toes, shins, or thighs; that inevitable yellow card is a sign of victory. Daniel Edelman, quieter, more composed, but no less effective. If your side struggles to progress from the defensive third into the attacking third, it's not fun. Now, that’s not to say this midfield is invincible.
We’ve seen, especially earlier in the season, what can happen with this midfield pairing if the opponent has a foothold in the game - slow, languid, ineffective. Neither is capable of serving as the team's foothold when it needs to move the ball forward. Neither can change the tempo of the game when the ball is at their feet.
But, especially in San Jose, it was beyond effective. It was stifling, like a corn-sweat Missouri afternoon in July.
Slide to the Right
In the BH era, whether it be Löwen or Hartel, the creative thrust of CITY has largely been on the left.
We are in the AH era now, and might soon also be in the AL era, and Carlo Holse is readying to be the DP on the right side.
And honestly, it’s a bit of a bummer.
Sang-bin continues to look more and more comfortable, becoming more and more involved in possession, and more willing to link up with his wide partner, Wallem. The latter has fought through whatever malaise, discomfort, uncertainty, etc., from the first quarter of the season and is now showing some of the traits we/I expected of him in the preseason predictions, while the former, who looked like a half-fit for Damet, has become a problem for the opponent. His skillset was also a differentiator that the rest of the squad lacked, one of the reasons I was so pleased with his arrival, but the rest of his game has rounded into a useful article for Damet, to the point where it begs the question: will he be resigned this winter? It would’ve been a near-unanimous “probably not” this Spring. I imagine it’s a near-unanimous “probably” this Fall.
But back to San Jose, that first goal happens because these two in particular manipulate space. While the ball is near the left side, JSB stays extremely high and wide, pleading for the ball. Durkin plays him. Meanwhile, Wallem has tucked so far infield he’s essentially playing at the 9. This drags the fullback inside and keeps the centerback pinned, presenting that passing angle from Durkin to JSB. The second Wallem recognizes the ball is getting to JSB; he makes the run we see so often from JSB, vertical, between the defenders, which creates a moment of confusion as to who switches to Wallem, and that moment gives enough space for JSB to play a ball to space for Wallem to run. Chris breaks it down well here:
And that brings me to the biggest question mark of the evening and of the next phase of this side: where does Carlo Holse fit in? He’s going to play in that R10 occupied by JSB. If not, fire everyone. He’s also an incredibly talented off-ball runner, but in a much different way than JSB. Where JSB has both the burst and speed, Holse’s revolves around his timing of the pass and backline. And as a left-footer, he’s often wanting to shift the ball inside onto his left as he cuts in toward goal. Will he be as wide as JSB was in this clip? Or will he want to be more central, where Wallem was, and Wallem will then need to be in that wider role, and how does that impact the improved play of Wallem in recent weeks?
Lots of questions, we’ve all got thoughts; only time will tell how Damet answers them.
Final Thoughts
Saturday night in San Jose was both a celebration and a stark reminder: a celebration because Damet’s CITY is not to be overlooked, regardless of roster upheaval, and a stark reminder of that upheaval. Where would this team, led by what looks to be a brilliant head coach, be if this front office hadn’t maneuvered an out for its starting center forward, wasted over one million dollars of general allocation money and three months on Sergio Cordova, and, as the clock strikes midnight, gone 10 months without finding a solution?
Yoann Damet has taken a team without a reliable center forward to 6th in the West.
Where would this team be if Damet’s offense didn’t boil down to the coin flip of finishing at the center forward position this season (and a coin flip has a 50% conversion rate, which is nowhere near STL’s reality from that position)?
Yoann Damet, in his first moment without that center forward and having just lost his team’s talisman, heartbeat, and best player, went to San Jose and beat the doors off the Earthquakes.
Belt. To. Ass.
What else does Yoann Damet have to do to earn a center forward worth a damn walking through those doors?
As of this publication, this front office has two weeks left before the window shuts. Two weeks left before they’ll have spent an entire calendar year toiling to find an answer at that position.
Almost nothing in this life or the next is black and white, but this is:
Sign a nine.
Final Final Thoughts
St. Louis CITY SC is currently a good team. kansas is a bad team. A really, really bad team.
The third, fifth, and sixth most one-sided expected-points matches of the season have included kansas on the other side. I’ll be disappointed if tonight isn’t the first.
We are walking into the Furniture Mart looking like fools, wearing gold.
The #RavioliMerchants best not leave like fools.
Thanks for being here.
Winning is fun; winning tonight is mandatory.
#AllForCITY, forever and always.
#DiegoOut
Here is the real question. Where would we be this year if we had a lazy number 9 that was a GREAT finisher but didn't do all the other things that Becher does? I don't pretend to know the answer but I would guess it's a factor in how long they search for the right DP 9. And the rare 9 that does both may be playing in a bigger league or bound for it eventually.
I really would hate to see us in an AL era! Been my favorite since the beginning. Let's just hope Holse crushes it! Sure been a lot more fun at the Park! Thanks for your continued analysis!