Three games and one goal. It’s a soccer-y, worse version of Cerberus: three heads, one body, and absolutely no bite.
As I mentioned in my update regarding our shift from Monday to Wednesday, I want to remain mindful of the “New Manager, New Season, New Roster, New Style” mantra. You’ve heard it from every #AllForCITY creator this month. But here is where I differ:
If CITY had banked five, six, or nine points, we wouldn’t be preaching patience. We wouldn’t be dismissing the success as a “small sample size anomaly.” We’d be crowning the new era. If we’re willing to validate the process when the points are there, we have to be honest when they aren’t.
One point and one goal is bad. It’s okay to say it.
We’ve done this math before: in the parity-driven chaos of MLS, you need between 6–7 points every five-game “round” to stay above the playoff line. Fall behind, and you’re chasing the pack. Get ahead early, and you can suffer a little as the season goes on. Predicting this league game-by-game is folly, which is why five-game rolling averages are better snapshots, but we aren’t there yet.
There are still 6 points outstanding in this round. Two wins are unrealistic from these last two, but that’s the playoff pace, whether we like it or not.
For now, though, let’s look at the games.
In Possession: The Illusion of Control
For those familiar with “Nancy-ball” in Columbus, it’s no surprise Yoann Damet wants the ball at our feet. In our two home games, we attempted 251 more passes than Charlotte and Seattle combined. We are executing the gameplan—specifically using the width of our wingbacks—but we lack the chemistry in the center to make it dangerous.
Outside of center-back lateral play, Orozco-to-Wallem and Polvara-to-Santos have been our most frequent pathways. While it’s magical to finally have a left-footed LWB with Rafael Santos’ striking technique, it’s equally worrisome that a supplemental-roster veteran, who was looking for a home as preseason approached, is currently the most vital cog in the system.
The following are the touch maps of the three games from our WBs:
Attacking from left to right against Charlotte, you see fairly equal touches and balanced verticality from both sides, with Santos providing those free-kick attempts at goal and Wallem receiving inside the penalty area.
Attacking from right to left against San Diego, you see almost no final third activity, and Totland’s not-included 11 total touches, 8 of which were in our own half, don’t help the visual.
And attacking from left to right against Seattle, you see one touch inside the penalty area, Santos hugging the touchline, and Wallem essentially meeting an invisible wall 12 yards from the end line.
Now, at the risk of making this sound too simple, if you really looked at these touch-maps from Santos and Wallem, you could likely figure out which game CITY scored and which games CITY did not without ever looking at a scoreboard.
San Diego did not let CITY do anything in the final third with their wingbacks, and Seattle kept Santos at a distance, and Nouhou kept Wallem in solitary confinement. And at this moment, with the current iteration as Damet OS 1.0, the wingbacks have to contribute in a big way. OS 1.1 will need to eliminate some bugs and fix some user issues that have popped up frequently, especially this next one.
The Midfield Paradox
You will be hard-pressed to find a successful team, at any level, in the last decade that couldn’t progress through the middle. I’ve been a vocal critic of the Daniel Edelman signing for this exact reason: CITY lacks a central profile capable of dictating tempo, and he was not designed to fix it.
Currently, we have Durkin—a pure destroyer—and Edelman, who is neither Durkin nor Löwen. He’s a significant on-ball upgrade on Durkin, but a significant downgrade on Löwen. And without Löwen, there is just not enough “oomph” here. Neither is the architect this system demands. If/when the Lion returns and Fall or Mbacke can provide incisive verticality from the back, maybe everything changes?
That’s the biggest question point I have at this moment - is this a personnel or systemic issue? If it’s personnel, we should see some drastic improvements. If it’s systemic, I fear we are in trouble.
Out of Possession: Data in Flux
I’m tabling the deep dive on our defensive structure for now. Between Dean Smith’s “English Olof Mellberg” bunker with Charlotte, a San Diego game-state that shattered after three minutes, and a depleted Seattle side looking toward the CCC, we haven’t seen the “true” Damet out-of-possession yet.
So I’ll leave this here for now as a placeholder of what is to come, but that is all.
And that feels like everything, unless I forgot something?
Oh yeah, sorry, I almost pulled a Diego Gigliani and Corey Wray.
I almost forgot about scoring.
Goals.
It would be a mistake not to mention the name currently haunting Diego Gigliani and Corey Wray: João Klauss. He’s the guy who asked his team in Los Angeles to wear black armbands in honor of Ilona Löwen, while the person still sitting in St. Louis, who runs this whole operation, fined Klauss for returning to Brazil for pre-announced family matters. That’s just one transgression among many, including last year’s decision to stand against those opposing childhood cancer.
Klauss leads MLS with 4 goals for the Galaxy. CITY has one. Simon Becher and Sergio Córdova have zero. This isn’t a claim that Klauss would have four goals in this specific STL system, but it does serve as an indictment of the front office’s honesty.
Because if we were honest, we would admit 2026 will be another tough year, whether we call it rebuilding, retooling, or whatever term you prefer.
By trading Klauss and replacing him with a $1M+ GAM rental in Córdova, they’ve effectively punted on the 2026 season. But since they don’t want to face questions and the heat, they’ve opted for a 12-game rental DP because it’s the “project.” They’re hoping a summer DP signing will retroactively justify a wasted spring.
But they don’t want to face that reality, so they do what people in their position always do when a microphone is shoved in their face—and it’s a rule I try to live by —
If they are talking into a microphone, they are lying into a microphone.
And they talk into microphones a lot.
That’s really all I wanted to say about those first three games because, as mentioned, there isn’t much to take away from three completely different game states in three weeks. Instead, let’s use data to quickly discuss two scenarios—one in which CITY improves and one in which CITY does not.
Why things might turn around
STL is 25th in the table, but based on expected points, the outlook is not so dire.
ASA has STL at 8th through three games, with 5.19 points, which differs only slightly from my CCT expected points model of 5.08. (However, using OPTA data, those expected points decrease to 4.02). What does that imply? Well, that CITY has been much better on paper than its 1 point suggests. Charlotte was there for the taking, San Diego was, well, San Diego, and a half-fit, half-motivated Seattle did not come to Energizer Park intending to play expansive soccer.
Additionally, CITY ranks 1st in the ASA xG tables in underperformance. While Simon Becher is third individually in that poor statistic, CITY as a whole has underperformed, which isn’t surprising when you have only 1 goal in three games. If you believe in “due,” this might be your moment.
Do the rules of probability (The Gambler’s Fallacy) actually permit “due” to exist? Well… Anyway.
On top of all that, the XI is missing Löwen, Mbacke, and Fall. Mbacke may debut this weekend for what could be the toughest game of the season — away to LAFC. So, while the upcoming weekend might not look promising (though LAFC is fielding a near-ideal XI in their midweek CCC game on Tuesday), some small-sample data suggest that CITY has just been unlucky, not bad.
Why things might not
Well, after that first season, CITY has significantly underperformed their xPoints metrics over the past two seasons—16.5 points, to be exact. But it’s not just xPoints; it’s xG too.
You’d expect us to “progress to the mean,” except for some inconvenient facts: 1) Simon Becher led MLS in xG underperformance in 2025 and is currently third in that same category in 2026, and the team is utterly dependent on him or Córdova, who has similarly underperformed his xG in previous MLS stints; and 2) the team’s overall goal-scoring has underperformed our collective xG by almost 20 goals over the past two seasons.
Or, perhaps the team and system rely too heavily on the wingbacks and never develop a method for meaningful contributions and offensive inputs from central midfield.
I’ll leave you with this: a small-sample-size snippet from our first three games under all of our permanent and interim managers, which doesn’t account for any internal or external factors surrounding them. It’s simply—did they score points, should they have, how many goals they should’ve scored, and how many they should’ve conceded.
While the soccer hasn’t been all that pleasant, it feels great to be back at Energizer Park, and it feels great to be back here amongst friends.
#AllForCITY forever and always.
I’m excited once again to watch Heung-Min Son this weekend.
#DiegoOut