Jannes Horn - The answer to the famous question?
One Austin Powers, two seasons, six left backs.
Selmir Pidro. Narnia.
John Nelson. Gone.
Kyle Hiebert. Centerback.
Anthony Markanich. Probably Gone.
Nikolas Dyhr. Gone.
Jannes Horn. Here.
Wer? Jannes Horn: 27-year-old German, 6’ 1”, left-footed, with over 100 starts in the Bundesligas, most recently with almost 2200 minutes for 2. Bundesliga’s Nürnberg.
Here’s the thing about data analysis: You can always omit things to make something look positive or negative. That’s not my style. As much as I love telling you, the reader, my beliefs, I equally appreciate giving you the reigns, allowing you to come to conclusions that concur or contradict my own, because that’s healthy discourse.
Was? So, what does the data say about Jannes Horn compared to the other LBs CITY has rolled out? (Sorry, Reid, you don’t have a @smarterscout profile yet.) Well, the data doesn't pop. There needs to be a caveat here for this comparison. Horn has not played many LB minutes in the past couple of seasons. In 23-24, he played 72 minutes at LB and 2251 minutes at LCB. In 22-23, he played 34 minutes at LB and 562 minutes at LCB. So, creating an LB profile for him took some extra work. So, I took all of his data from the past four seasons of LB play, weighted via the minutes he played in those seasons, and this resulted in the following profile that is compared to Nelson and Markanich below:
Warum? Why, then, are we, especially me, expecting him to play LB and not LCB if that’s where he’s been playing for Nürnberg? Here’s my rationale: Defensively, his CB profile is insufficient. Whichever data site you prefer, his numbers are lackluster. Here’s his smarterscout LCB profile:
Not a lot of standout attributes there, excluding dribbling and ground duels in possession, which doubles down on the fact that the guy is an excellent dribbler for a centerback (because he’s not a centerback).
Now, here’s his profile as an LB in the Bundesliga (Four seasons ago, but a much much higher quality league than MLS):
You start seeing some numbers that positively stand out, right? Attacking output, ball retention, progressive passing, and even the more defensive ground duels out of possession. Unsurprisingly, for me, that ball retention number stands out. I’ve already talked about how likely we will see CITY change the approach from the Carnell long ball/second ball to a more possession-based style, especially with Hartel and Teuchert. You can add another Germanic reason to my belief in the tactics switch. Horn likes to have the ball, likes to dribble with the ball, and likes to pass the ball toward the goal. With the possible exception of Reid (small sample size), none of the previous CITY LBs have had the inclination to retain the ball. For me and my addiction to ball progression, I’m excited.
Let’s not be hasty and say this guy will be an All-Star. That defensive quantity/quality box is empty. If he will be effective in MLS, CITY must maximize his attacking output potential and cover his defensive weaknesses. Markanich has a better defending box, but we all know his deficiencies in defending against the dribble. Horn’s ground duels out of possession are SIGNIFICANTLY better than that, and his pace is a significant advantage that Markanich doesn’t have to help him in those situations. So, if CITY can maximize his attacking ability, they could have a solid option on the left side overlapping Hartel, but what does maximizing his attacking ability look like?
Wie? Finding similar profiles of LB, the most similar player to Horn’s 2020-21 Bundesliga season as an LB is Ajax and Croatia’s Borna Sosa, formerly of Stuttgart. A technician on the ball, in his three seasons in Germany before moving to the Netherlands, Sosa provided 24 assists. Not known for his defensive prowess, Sosa was utilized to maximize his strength - as an aggressive, on-the-ball playmaker getting the ball into the box.
So, smarterscout data says they are similar, but do FBREF and @fbcharts agree? Let’s take a look:
I’d say so.
So, what are Mr. Horn’s expectations? With the CFs, Teuchert, and Hartel sniffing in and around the box, goals should come if balls get into the box. The numbers suggest Horn is a quick LB who likes to dribble and pass forward and gets quality balls into the box often (and that quality is a HUGE difference-maker). I’m also expecting some moments where we lose the ball and are in trouble. As with any attacking fullback, when they go forward, there’s a lot of space left open to be attacked if the ball is lost; that will happen, and CITY fans need to be aware of that. Every pro has a con in this sport, and you have to believe that the game plan is such that the pros outweigh the cons.
But overall, I’m excited. I’m excited to see Reid and Horn together at LB. Reid should continue to get minutes and continue to develop, but we are not solely reliant upon a young MLS Next Pro defender on the left. That’s unfair to him and the team, and quality depth is not something CITY has been able to boast in the first two seasons of the Club. But more so, I’m excited that Lutz and Co. seem to be hammering the point repeatedly with the additions to the roster that they were not happy with the style of play, especially offensively, and are ready and willing to spend money to make this team better. This team will never spend the most in the league and will likely never spend the 10th most. But 15th? 18th? 20th even? That should be the target; the club appears to be actively working in that direction.
So, CITY, I hope this answers some of your questions about the Who, What, Where, When, Why, and How of Jannes Horn, but does this signing answer Mr. Power’s famous question, “Do I make you horny, baby?” We will have to see, Jannes. We will have to see.
Thanks for reading! #AllForCITY