Same Stuff Different Day
6/8/25 - POR 2 - 1 STL
CITY won (the xG battle) again! However, CITY lost the war. So, how does CITY put up the best offensive performance of the season and come away with nothing?
Because that’s soccer.
"Due to its low-scoring nature, a sound process is less likely to be rewarded in soccer than it is in any other sport." -Net Gains
POR 2 - 1 STL. #PORvSTL Why?
Before we dig in, I believe it would be quite an overreaction to make any sweeping judgments from Critch’s second game in charge, especially in an environment that was openly hostile to both fans and players. Rarely do you see a group of some of the fittest athletes on Planet Earth with their hands on their knees at the 60-minute mark. Perhaps the only sweeping judgment we should make is that the summer schedule pros ran out a decade ago, and now all we are left with are the cons.
Team Selection
The Best XI remains in flux, with lineup changes and roster upheaval likely on the horizon. However, can we settle on 7 out of 11 players, potentially forming the Best XI defensive unit for the remainder of 2025? Pompeu and Reid stay wide left, Tots flies high while Becher floats centrally, creating a good balance on paper. Hartel roams, and Klauss helps bring everyone else into play.
Morales is truly an underrated passer who contributes significantly in that area and offers good defensive stability and composure. However, what he lacks are functional hips. This limitation means he can’t turn to pass or dribble effectively. Watts is an elite goalscorer :) but can only be described as hyper-conservative on the ball. He seldom shows to receive a pass and doesn’t attempt incisive passes or risky dribbles. He plays within himself, which isn’t negative, but it does result in deficiencies for the unit when neither central midfielder can receive on the half-turn or dribble to break pressure. It would also be unfair to solely blame this unit because, aside from Wallem, who does the opposite of playing within himself, CITY severely lacks the ability to break pressure on the ground. If/when Edu is fit and firing at left center mid, pairing him with a dynamic dribbler would be a game-changer, but that’s for another post.
This represents the best right-sided selection CITY has had in months. Yet, it was forgotten, just like almost everything else in 2025. At this point, it’s become a learned behavior, and Critch needs CITY to unlearn it, ASAP. (h/t @BeGriffis on X)
Becher somewhat playing on the RW doesn’t help; he had the fewest touches and doesn’t contribute anything to the build-up. However, Totland’s 31 touches compared to Reid’s 91 can’t happen.
The Critch
Through two games, Critch has 3 points, and CITY has a +1.7 xGD. Pretty decent stuff. In Olof’s final four games, CITY actually performed well, outpacing xG in two, equal in the third, but that walloping against Minnesota meant a -0.1 xGD overall. Does that mean Critch has patched the holes or found the secret sauce? Probably not. After those back-to-back horrendous xG performances in LA and Seattle, the team was trending in the right direction, and Critch has continued that, but the difference now is the increase in xG.
How has that xG increase happened? What is CITY doing differently? We have 180 minutes people, so we are back to where we were three months ago, which is a small sample size (“SSS”). As you should know, making any declarations from an SSS is foolish at best. That declaration might be proven right or wrong over time, but that doesn’t make it any less foolish.
So let’s be fools.
The last two with Olof versus the first two with Critch. We could analyze the entire season or any other number of Olof games, but it doesn’t make this comparison any less foolish.
So far, CITY is passing significantly less with Critch—over 100 passes a game fewer. There are fewer passes into the final third, fewer into the box, fewer switches, fewer crosses, and fewer progressive passes in terms of distance.
While there are more key passes, this is entirely reliant on shots, which are about as predictive as RBIs in baseball. If you give a sideways pass to Durkin 48 yards from the goal, it counts as a key pass as the ball sails into the stands.
However, this is interesting. CITY passing less instinctively suggests they are touching the ball less because you don’t just stand there; you pass. Additionally, CITY also has over 100 more touches with Olof than with Critch. Interestingly, Olof significantly outperforms Critch in middle and attacking third touches by almost 50 a game. Did CITY have a larger presence in the positive part of the pitch under Olof?
I buried the lede. The super-duper-interesting part? The stat - Critch has double the penalty box touches. Why? (IDK yet, but don’t come at me with the back 4 vs back 5 nonsense, but it’s probably because we have functional fullback play).
It’s Okay to Be Angry
CITY went winless for two months, in case you forgot, and the overall theme was inconsistency in both performance and personnel. Two players consistently delivered decent-to-good performances. Overall, they made a significant contribution to this game as well.
But score the damn ball, guys.
0.36 xG on Klauss’s shot, 0.30 on Watts’ follow-up, and then 0.53 on Hartel’s miss wide. One of those just *has* to go in the net.
1/8 on GREAT/GOOD xG chances is twofold: 1) consistent high-quality chance creation is predictive of long-term offensive success, and 2) it often indicates you failed to capitalize on opportunities to win games, as seen here, there, and everywhere. Number 2 has been as consistent as CITY's injuries in 2025.
The good news is that these numbers will likely correct themselves over time. The bad news is that it won’t happen quickly enough to salvage 2025.
Thanks for reading, can’t wait to spend all summer sweating with you at Energizer Park, and if you see a rat, say hello.
#AllForCITY, forever and always.