Santa Said, "Goal Goal Goal!"
STL 3 - 3 LAG
Happy Belated Father’s Day, and happy belated #MLSMondays to all those #AllForCITY Dads out there.
#AllForCITY managed to snag a point from the jaws of defeat on Saturday. CITY lost the xG battle to MLS’s worst team, and it could’ve/should’ve been worse.
Klauss netted CITY’s first hat-trick in club history, so it wasn’t all Bad News Bears.
Let’s talk about it. #STLvLAG
Team Selection:
It seems we are settling into the Critch Best XI, and this was a 7/11 on that front. Did CITY win? The trend continues. Hiebert replaced the re-injured Kessler, who was Critch’s only change since the loss in Portland. This forced change undermines a strength of one of the players in this lineup, specifically Tommy Tots, but more on that in a second.
Balance doesn’t equal symmetry. Balance means “a condition in which different elements are in the correct proportions.” Becher will always want to cut in and play centrally. That works well with Tots doing his thing, wanting to push down the right and receive long balls. Pompeu and Reid on the left prefer close, tight touches and passing angles.
The volume of CB to DM passing was lacking, which shouldn’t surprise you, as we’ve discussed this numerous times. RCB (Hiebert) will never feel comfortable fizzing balls into midfield, so he’s strictly a sideways (RB & CB) and backwards (GK) passer. Morales and Watts struggle to dribble under pressure, making it difficult to feed balls to them with defenders on their backs. Wallem briefly came on for Morales to likely try to address this issue, but we had to settle for JGR and Watts, which is a significantly worse option compared to Morales and Watts on the ball. One way to cope with not having CMs who can consistently move the ball upfield? Ping that ball over the defense to willing runners. Becher centrally and Tots down the right. I noticed on the replay that Tots was making a lot of runs looking for that long ball over the top, which isn’t new to him, but it’s something we’ve missed as a possibility from fullback play. If Kessler returns to that RCB slot, keep your eyes peeled.
What Did We (Re)Learn?
Klauss is back on track. Progression to the mean.
In his seven seasons with tracked xG, he has scored 29 goals on 30.4 xG. In 2023, he netted 10 goals on 5.8 (+4.2). Unsustainable. In 2024, he scored 5 on 9.3 (-4.3). Unsustainable. So far in 2025, he has 5 on 4.7, which places him at +0.2 for his MLS/STL career.
St. Louis CITY SC really struggles to play defense in a 4-2-3-1. Allowing 2.72 xGA to the current worst team in the league is unacceptable. Two separate one-on-zero breaks are unacceptable. Thankfully, Paintsil overcooked that pass, or we would be looking at another 0.80+ xG opportunity. Does all of that disappear if Kessler plays RCB? Not likely.
This raises a noticeable issue behind the defense, specifically in the LB/LCB channel. Jay Reid is a decent young player, but he lacks defensive awareness, similar to Markanich before him. However, Reid’s pace gives him a get-out-of-jail-free card in some situations. He often looks to step forward to intercept or tackle, which leaves him susceptible to balls over the top, especially when Pompeu shows little interest in tracking back, as was evident against LAG. I lost track of how many times Yamane and Pec tried to combination play in a 2v1 against Reid. If Reid cannot stop that ball behind him, Baumgartl must, which raises a similar concern. Timo also tends to step forward (Dog), but he’s slow. So, when he has to chase balls down over the top, he probably won't get there first. How do you fix that? Would an upgrade at 6 (DM) help close down those angles to reduce the frequency of plays like that? Probably. Could Kessler assist? Possibly, but that involves covering a lot of distance.
So, how do you fix it? Through player development or player recruitment. Reid and Timo need to learn how to play together in a way that minimizes the threat, or you need to bring in an upgrade to one or both, as needed.
What We Already Knew:
Marcel Hartel is an excellent soccer player. Like everyone else, he struggled to contribute goals under Snowman.
Hartel recorded 1.8 xAG! He made 10 progressive passes, doubling CITY’s next highest. He led the team in carries and touches. Additionally, he had SEVEN shot-creating actions, and that GCA on the assist to Klauss’s first. He is now 11th in MLS in SCAs. CITY has the third-fewest goals scored in the league. The team has not performed well, but whenever CITY has positive moments in 2025, Hartel is always involved.
What may be most illustrative? Not long ago, Hartel was playing LB on goal kicks because he was the only player on the field capable of advancing the ball forward, rather than backward. He had five touches in the defensive third and 41 in the attacking third.
This team has a tendency to make goal-conceding mistakes, and some of them are pretty bad. There is no statistic tracking this, but I believe that the overwhelming majority of goals in professional soccer are a direct result of a mistake by the conceding team. Why? Because scoring goals is difficult. CITY scored in three different minutes during this game but failed to score in the other 100 minutes played. It’s hard. That Antony golazo last week? Was that due to his skill, or was it because Tots was late to close down and then came in too quickly, leaving him vulnerable to a piece of skill (not expecting that beautiful skill at all)?
And it happens everywhere, all the time (to the bad teams). But as Zalinsky fires an aimless ball across the middle of the pitch into an immediately dangerous area—one that results in a 0.92 xG (and 0.99 PSxG, literally, the easiest you can have)—you can’t help but think, “Again?! Seriously?!”
It’s a learning moment for a young player, and that’s part of the experience. Just a week ago, Zalinsky solo defended against two attackers and beat both of them to keep CITY in the game. The good, the bad, and the ugly.
Final Thoughts:
Scoring three goals was fun. A Klauss hat-trick was even more fun. Conceding to LAG like that was definitely not fun. Anyway…
This is CITY’s “Summer Break.”
This team isn’t making the playoffs, folks. However, a season that cannot end in glory doesn’t have to be labeled a season of failure. There’s a lot to be gained and lost throughout the second half of 2025. Contracts are expiring, and options are being weighed.
That's a lot of 2025s.
This becomes a proving ground for whether you have a future with CITY, a future in MLS, a future abroad, or a future in a nursing home (looking at you, Swedes in the sjukhus). Goals and targets are fluid. In preseason, failing to make the playoffs was a disaster. It still is, because not making the playoffs in this league is laughable. That goal is over, so set a new one. It’s evaluation season, and during this quick break, we will have a little CCT analysis of the squad and what I would do this summer, so stay tuned. (Gotta love a teaser)
But until then, enjoy this short break. I’ll be watching the CWC because, regardless of the obvious cash grab from FIFA, it’s really fun soccer.
#AllForCITY, forever and always.
Really enjoyed the breakdown, but I think there’s more to dig into re: balance.
If Reid needs more defensive cover and Tot tends to push forward and look for long balls, why not try Kessler (once healthy) on the left and Baumgartl on the right? Their profiles contrast well and could better support the wingbacks. Playing like-minded players on the same side works in some systems, but sometimes balancing opposites creates more dynamic attacks.
That said, too much symmetry can become predictable—easy for the opposition to digest and shut down.
Before 2025 contracts expire, maybe look to not play the 10/11 same lineup as Portland and look to re-evaluate “balance”.