That’s me, the nerd. For the 7th time in 25 MLS games, CITY overperformed their xG. That’s good, while also being bad.
Class, open your books to page 44, and let’s begin. #MLSMondays #STLvNSH
Team Selection:
There are currently two questions for me in this team selection. In a hypothetical scenario where everyone is fit and ready, who is the third attacker behind Klauss, and who plays the number 6 position?
There are three options for that third attacker: Pompeu, Teuchert, Ostrák. The first guy—fans like him, dribbles a lot, and that’s about it. The second guy—fans don’t like him, but he should be good at scoring goals; however, he hasn’t scored any and doesn’t do much else. The third guy—not very effective higher up the field. There is no clear answer for this role right now. Someone needs to step up and win it.
Totland is the best right back at the club. I think Orozco might be playing there because of the next talking point.
Who exactly plays the six? Morales, alongside Löwen, is interesting, but I worry that it’s too reliant on passing, not very resistant to pressure, and defensively average. Durkin hasn’t improved at all, and like an X commentator said, treats the ball like a grenade. JGR, currently playing as a backup center back. Ostrák loves sliding into tackles but has no sense of dangerous spaces or how to cover them. Wallem isn’t eager to receive the ball, takes too many risks with dribbling, and turns it over often. So again, there’s no clear answer here. I’d like to find one, and I think CITY should find one through the Transfer Window.
That’s why I think Orozco might be playing right back—adding more defensive bite since there’s no designated six (even though that 'bite’ has conceded two penalties and was unreasonably close to a third on Saturday).
Tactics!
A noticeable tactical development recently, which is undoubtedly player availability related; CITY is making bounce passes, and not the bounce pass you’re likely thinking of in basketball.
A CITY CB is standing with possession of the ball. Nashville is set up in their base pre-press defense. CITY’s deepest-lying midfielder, often Löwen, is behind the first line of the Nashville press, comes toward the ball, the CB fires it to him, and he hits a first-time pass right back to the CB. The ball essentially “bounces” off Löwen’s back to where it came from. Why are we talking about this? Seems kinda marginal? It can be an almost immediate press-breaker.
Notice in the clip how both Nashville defenders step in, trying to win that ball. When done correctly, that bounce pass should be back at the CB’s foot before those guys get back into their base position, and all of a sudden, there are two new lanes to move the ball vertically that weren’t available just a few seconds ago.
And a minute after that clip, CITY does it again. But this time, there’s no pressure on Löwen’s back, and he turns to receive it and immediately drives forward through midfield, breaking the press in a different manner.
(I’m hoping these clips work, if not, they’ll be on Bsky/X)
Same exact setup, two different ways to break pressure and immediately create vertical progression. Why didn’t we do that before? The two players who can do it haven’t been playing. Löwen and Morales, the deep-lying playmakers in this squad, have both missed significant time. Ostrák has shown the ability at times, but his inclination to take multiple touches eliminates the bounce pass threat, and all of the other midfielders just aren’t good enough, full stop.
It would probably be beneficial to find a defensive midfielder who can take on some of that responsibility. So this development is fun and exciting, at least to me, and it should get better with Kessler. I would classify Baumgartl as an aggressive passer rather than a good passer, and he struggles to up the tempo when necessary. I have no such concerns with Kessler.
Lasting Thoughts
There have been a lot of “we could’ve/should’ve won that game" opinions this season. That season opener against Colorado sticks in my mind as to how different this season could’ve been. And that’s the nature of low-scoring sports. All it takes is one mistake or one moment of magic. Was CITY deserving of 3 points? I think so. Willis should be saving at least one of those first two goals in my mind.
CITY were outshot, but Nashville took 10 POOR xG shots (less than 0.06 xG). Those are box score stuffers, but they’re called POOR for a reason. CITY had 4 GOOD, Nashville had 0. CITY had 2 GREAT, Nashville had 2 (and a penalty). Just look at @begriffis’s match report.
CITY didn’t enter the box all that often, but they were much more efficient than Nashville, and that’s why Nashville went home with nothing.
We should avoid focusing too much on 90 minutes of soccer, especially when discussing the new players. However, we do need to talk about them a bit. There has been a lot of chatter about Fall on social media, and he had a pretty solid debut. I also think he was the least impressive of the three on Saturday, not negatively, but more in how positive the other two were.
Padelford has impressed me greatly. It probably reflects how poor our LB play has been historically. Still, he was composed defensively, showed incredible work rate in both recovery defense and overlapping runs, and demonstrated eagerness and aggressiveness in taking on defenders with the ball. If this keeps up, Lutz and the team should do everything possible to make this loan permanent.
And just like with LB play, JSB’s work at RW has shown what CITY has been missing. His effort and pressing have been excellent; he’s both coming short for the ball and making dangerous runs behind the defense, and his speed is a real threat. I’m undeniably a big fan of Sang-bin and have been for some time. I believe his profile is nearly perfect for what CITY needed.
Thanks for reading!
#AllForCITY, forever and always.
Have we signed a 6 yet?
great summary and we definitely need that 6