2/22/25 - STL v COL

2025's Opening & Optimistic Night

Welcome, one and all! I’ve missed you. It’s Monday, and while that may not excite many, this is special because it marks the 2025 return of #MLSMondays!

For those unfamiliar, on Mondays following a CITY match, we have a long-form discussion that breaks down the tactics, players, and data from the weekend’s performance.

Anyway, let’s break down that STL 0 - 0 Colorado performance!

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Team Selection:

With Teuchert unavailable, Olof opted for the 3-4-1-2 formation. For those long-time readers, you likely remember my frustration with the insistence on playing two center forwards under the previous regimes. I don’t feel that same frustration here due to the difference this formation brings. Previously, using a double center forward meant one less player in midfield, which often led to CITY being overrun in the center. However, with three center backs, Olof has the advantage of maintaining three in central midfield, giving CITY a significantly stronger presence in the match.

I originally had Hiebert and Horn switched. The thought was that since Horn is the starting left center back, he would continue to play there, and Olof would find an alternative at left wing back, in this case, Hiebert. I didn’t consider that Olof was much more flexible than the previous two managers and far more willing to adjust personnel to make more tactical sense. Now, that doesn’t mean it worked perfectly. Even though Horn is a much more natural fit at left wing back than Hiebert, the balance was off. Much of CITY’s play went down the right, with Horn’s left being sometimes an afterthought, as shown here:

There is a lot of connectivity with Totland but significantly less with Horn. Totland led in progressive passes attempted (29) and ranked third in total passes attempted (72), indicating his key role in possession. Is Olof planning to play asymmetrically? I don’t think so. However, you can clearly see what Olof is trying to achieve. CITY wants to get the ball wide to the WBs in the final third and then send the ball into the box. Notice how much deeper CITY moved down the right compared to the left. A little more balance in that regard should prove hugely beneficial.

Is this a Best XI? No. Wallem at left wing back, Horn, Nilsson, and Kessler at center backs, and Teuchert for Simon - that’s your most likely best XI. But “Best XIs” are often misguided simply because it’s rare for there to be no injuries, suspensions, absences, etc., in the modern game.

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Players:

Almost every player on Saturday night could be up for positive individual praise. That would be redundant, so I will stick to my Top-3 performances on the night.

• Marcel Hartel - Shot-creating actions (SCAs) are essentially what the statistic indicates; they refer to any action (such as passes, dribbles, shots, fouls, tackles, etc.) that leads to a shot. SCAs are tracked similarly to assists in hockey, where the two actions preceding a shot are counted as an SCA. CITY had 17 shots in total, Marcel recorded 9 SCAs (7 primary, also known as a Key Pass, and 2 secondary), along with a shot of his own. In other words, Marcel assisted on nearly 60% of CITY’s shots. That’s incredible. That’s the performance of an elite-level playmaker. 

• Eduard Löwen - 13 passes into the final third, with over 10 progressive passes. He is the cog in CITY’s possession wheel shown above and led the team with 6 tackles and interceptions. The Midfield Metronome. Everything went through Edu on Saturday, and after 68 minutes, he showed signs of fatigue. We’ve come to expect 90 minutes of play from Edu every night. That is no longer the case with players like Morales, Wallem, and Teuchert coming on alongside unused players like Pompeu, Alm, and Baumgartl. Sure, Edu will be able to play a full 90 as the season progresses, but he doesn’t HAVE to in 2025, which is a pleasant surprise. 

• Henry Kessler - MOTM. (Shame on the CITY admin for not including him in the vote!) Played sideline to sideline, putting on a Dyson-approved advertisement in sweeping up. As the CCB, he wasn’t tasked with progressing the ball; the progression is to get it to the WCBs, who either find the CMs or the WBs and move forward from there. People have voiced concern over his lackluster aerial data, but he went 4/5 on the night to pair with his team-leading 7 clearances and perfect tackling percentage. When he slides over to the RCB and uses his best attribute (passing), he might be reason alone to have CITYPARK standing. Outstanding Henry, outstanding.

Honorable Mentions: Akil Watts, Klauss, Simon Becher.

Quick breaking of the rules for a shoutout to Alfredo Morales. Composed, assertive performance from the Trialist. It's not something CITY has had at CM outside of Löwen in these two years. Looks like an excellent addition from Lutz & Co.

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Overall:

That was a solid performance. There are a lot of overreactions on social media following one matchday. New manager, new formation, new ideas. CITY has clearly been working on their defensive structure and pressing throughout the preseason, and it showed. There are only so many hours of training, so CITY has spent less time attacking principles, which was evident. That’s okay. CITY went out and recorded a +1.8 xG differential on Matchday 1. Want to know how many times CITY achieved that in 2024? Once. Want to know how many times they did that in 2023? Once.

CITY conceded an xGA of 0.2 on Saturday. Want to know how many times that’s happened in CITY’s short history? Zero. Quite literally, this is the best defensive performance CITY has ever had in MLS.

Soccer is a low-scoring sport. A single unusual bounce or an unfortunate shot hitting the woodwork can determine the outcome—winning, drawing, or losing. That’s why it’s crucial to view it in the context of the bigger picture. We won’t know the data trends for another four matches, so while it’s disappointing that CITY couldn't secure a win on Saturday, it doesn’t indicate failure. There are 33 games (and more in the playoffs) ahead in 2025, and if CITY can replicate Saturday night’s approach, we will not win them all, but we will win many.

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Many thanks to all of you, #AllForCITY, for your support not only of my content but also of the content creator space as a whole. I do this because I love this sport, I love this team, and I love sharing what little knowledge I have. I don’t know why you read, share, and like what I say, but I’m glad you’re here.

Next up, San Diego.

#AllForCITY, forever and always.